State X | Observed mean | UK results | K-Model | KM-Model | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  | Posterior mean | Posterior SD | 95% CI | Posterior mean | Posterior SD | 95% CI | Posterior mean | Posterior SD | 95% CI |
11111 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Â | 1 | 0 | Â | 1 | 0 | Â |
11112 | 0.8385 | 0.8259 | 0.0091 | (0.8081,0.8437) | 0.8199 | 0.0089 | (0.8025,0.8373) | 0.8263 | 0.0085 | (0.8096,0.8430) |
11113 | 0.5422 | 0.4107 | 0.012 | (0.3872,0.4342) | 0.4848 | 0.0139 | (0.4576,0.5120) | 0.4875 | 0.0128 | (0.4624,0.5126) |
11121 | 0.8632 | 0.8494 | 0.0086 | (0.8325,0.8663) | 0.849 | 0.0102 | (0.8290,0.8690) | 0.8583 | 0.0095 | (0.8397,0.8769) |
11122 | 0.7693 | 0.7187 | 0.012 | (0.6952,0.7422) | 0.7386 | 0.0125 | (0.7141,0.7631) | 0.7509 | 0.0118 | (0.7278,0.7740) |
11131 | 0.3485 | 0.2238 | 0.013 | (0.1983,0.2493) | 0.2691 | 0.0148 | (0.2401,0.2981) | 0.2776 | 0.0142 | (0.2498,0.3054) |
11133 | 0.1988 | 0.0107 | 0.0131 | (−0.0150,0.0364) | 0.1321 | 0.0129 | (0.1068,0.1574) | 0.1476 | 0.0123 | (0.1235,0.1717) |
11211 | 0.8672 | 0.8704 | 0.0091 | (0.8526,0.8882) | 0.8556 | 0.0088 | (0.8384,0.8728) | 0.8609 | 0.0086 | (0.8440,0.8778) |
11312 | 0.63 | 0.5499 | 0.0123 | (0.5258,0.5740) | 0.5863 | 0.0125 | (0.5618,0.6108) | 0.5931 | 0.0126 | (0.5684,0.6178) |
11331a |  | 0.2154 | 0.1522 | (−0.0829,0.5137) | 0.3027 | 0.1474 | (0.0138,0.5916) | 0.3275 | 0.1774 | (−0.0202,0.6752) |
12111 | 0.8429 | 0.8303 | 0.0089 | (0.8129,0.8477) | 0.8272 | 0.0107 | (0.8062,0.8482) | 0.8301 | 0.0098 | (0.8109,0.8493) |
12121 | 0.7837 | 0.7421 | 0.0121 | (0.7184,0.7658) | 0.7587 | 0.0123 | (0.7346,0.7828) | 0.7659 | 0.0115 | (0.7434,0.7884) |
12211 | 0.7951 | 0.763 | 0.012 | (0.7395,0.7865) | 0.7662 | 0.013 | (0.7407,0.7917) | 0.7716 | 0.0115 | (0.7491,0.7941) |
12222 | 0.6533 | 0.5467 | 0.0118 | (0.5236,0.5698) | 0.6052 | 0.0111 | (0.5834,0.6270) | 0.6145 | 0.0101 | (0.5947,0.6343) |
12223 | 0.4441 | 0.2411 | 0.0118 | (0.2180,0.2642) | 0.3693 | 0.0149 | (0.3401,0.3985) | 0.3799 | 0.0133 | (0.3538,0.4060) |
12322a | Â | 0.3008 | 0.1012 | (0.1024,0.4992) | 0.3771 | 0.0993 | (0.1825,0.5717) | 0.3888 | 0.1213 | (0.1511,0.6265) |
13212 | 0.4704 | 0.3958 | 0.0123 | (0.3717,0.4199) | 0.3988 | 0.0148 | (0.3698,0.4278) | 0.4119 | 0.0124 | (0.3876,0.4362) |
13311 | 0.4131 | 0.3549 | 0.0128 | (0.3298,0.3800) | 0.3402 | 0.0119 | (0.3169,0.3635) | 0.3566 | 0.0113 | (0.3345,0.3787) |
13313a |  | 0.1381 | 0.1172 | (−0.0916,0.3678) | 0.2134 | 0.115 | (−0.0120,0.4388) | 0.2302 | 0.1376 | (−0.0395,0.4999) |
13332 | −0.0131 | −0.1304 | 0.0144 | (−0.1586,−0.1022) | −0.0679 | 0.0171 | (−0.1014,−0.0344) | −0.0438 | 0.0157 | (−0.0746,0.0130) |
21111 | 0.8788 | 0.8788 | 0.0098 | (0.8596,0.8980) | 0.8662 | 0.0088 | (0.8490,0.8834) | 0.8713 | 0.0084 | (0.8548,0.8878) |
21133 | 0.1612 | −0.0105 | 0.014 | (−0.0379,0.0169) | 0.0851 | 0.0162 | (0.0533,0.1169) | 0.1077 | 0.0145 | (0.0793,0.1361) |
21222 | 0.6587 | 0.5496 | 0.0115 | (0.5271,0.5721) | 0.6104 | 0.0111 | (0.5886,0.6322) | 0.621 | 0.0101 | (0.6012,0.6408) |
21232 | 0.3382 | 0.1008 | 0.0125 | (0.0763,0.1253) | 0.248 | 0.0153 | (0.2180,0.2780) | 0.2574 | 0.0132 | (0.2315,0.2833) |
21311a | Â | 0.5801 | 0.117 | (0.3508,0.8094) | 0.5696 | 0.1144 | (0.3454,0.7938) | 0.5899 | 0.1322 | (0.3308,0.8490) |
21312 | 0.5972 | 0.5388 | 0.0129 | (0.5135,0.5641) | 0.5483 | 0.0129 | (0.5230,0.5736) | 0.5632 | 0.0124 | (0.5389,0.5875) |
21323 | 0.3402 | 0.1687 | 0.0131 | (0.1430,0.1944) | 0.2569 | 0.0155 | (0.2265,0.2873) | 0.2765 | 0.014 | (0.2491,0.3039) |
22112 | 0.7129 | 0.6642 | 0.012 | (0.6407,0.6877) | 0.6685 | 0.0122 | (0.6446,0.6924) | 0.6805 | 0.0119 | (0.6572,0.7038) |
22121 | 0.7154 | 0.6361 | 0.0118 | (0.6130,0.6592) | 0.6749 | 0.0112 | (0.6529,0.6969) | 0.6828 | 0.0101 | (0.6630,0.7026) |
22122 | 0.6664 | 0.5415 | 0.0116 | (0.5188,0.5642) | 0.6198 | 0.0127 | (0.5949,0.6447) | 0.6234 | 0.0119 | (0.6001,0.6467) |
22222 | 0.5979 | 0.4985 | 0.0121 | (0.4748,0.5222) | 0.5365 | 0.0128 | (0.5114,0.5616) | 0.5561 | 0.0122 | (0.5322,0.5800) |
22232a |  | 0.0989 | 0.0682 | (−0.0348,0.2326) | 0.1903 | 0.0671 | (0.0588,0.3218) | 0.2098 | 0.081 | (0.0510,0.3686) |
22233 | 0.1236 | −0.088 | 0.0141 | (−0.1156,-0.0604) | 0.0515 | 0.0153 | (0.0215,0.0815) | 0.0707 | 0.0145 | (0.0423,0.0991) |
22323 | 0.2804 | 0.0743 | 0.0129 | (0.0490,0.0996) | 0.1926 | 0.0157 | (0.1618,0.2234) | 0.2089 | 0.0136 | (0.1822,0.2356) |
22331 | 0.1844 | 0.011 | 0.0139 | (−0.0162,0.0382) | 0.105 | 0.013 | (0.0795,0.1305) | 0.1236 | 0.0124 | (0.0993,0.1479) |
23223a |  | −0.0038 | 0.1121 | (−0.2235,0.2159) | 0.0742 | 0.1101 | (−0.1416,0.2900) | 0.0928 | 0.1319 | (−0.1657,0.3513) |
23232 | 0.0973 | −0.0305 | 0.0138 | (−0.0575,-0.0035) | 0.0191 | 0.0163 | (−0.0128,0.0510) | 0.0434 | 0.0144 | (0.0152,0.0716) |
23313 | 0.1569 | −0.0017 | 0.0137 | (−0.0286,0.0252) | 0.0814 | 0.0134 | (0.0551,0.1077) | 0.0997 | 0.0129 | (0.0744,0.1250) |
23321 | 0.3331 | 0.1555 | 0.013 | (0.1300,0.1810) | 0.2539 | 0.0126 | (0.2292,0.2786) | 0.2666 | 0.012 | (0.2431,0.2901) |
31221a | Â | 0.2783 | 0.1307 | (0.0221,0.5345) | 0.3016 | 0.128 | (0.0507,0.5525) | 0.3127 | 0.1517 | (0.0154,0.6100) |
32211 | 0.2408 | 0.1779 | 0.0124 | (0.1536,0.2022) | 0.1783 | 0.016 | (0.1469,0.2097) | 0.188 | 0.0144 | (0.1598,0.2162) |
32212a |  | 0.1528 | 0.0902 | (−0.0240,0.3296) | 0.1601 | 0.0889 | (−0.0141,0.3343) | 0.1813 | 0.1056 | (−0.0257,0.3883) |
32223 | 0.0558 | −0.0991 | 0.0142 | (−0.1269,−0.0713) | −0.0203 | 0.0158 | (−0.0513,0.0107) | −0.0003 | 0.0158 | (−0.0313,0.0307) |
32232 | 0.0051 | −0.1201 | 0.0136 | (−0.1468,−0.0934) | −0.0677 | 0.0165 | (−0.1000,−0.0354) | −0.0419 | 0.0158 | (−0.0729,−0.0109) |
32313 | 0.0278 | −0.1005 | 0.0145 | (−0.1289,−0.0721) | −0.0331 | 0.0152 | (−0.0629,−0.0033) | −0.0148 | 0.0151 | (−0.0444,0.0148) |
32331 | −0.0895 | −0.1838 | 0.0152 | (−0.2136,−0.1540) | −0.1269 | 0.0169 | (−0.1600,−0.0938) | −0.1038 | 0.0151 | (−0.1334,−0.0742) |
33133a |  | −0.3087 | 0.1549 | (−0.6123,−0.0051) | −0.2178 | 0.1522 | (−0.5161,0.0805) | −0.2129 | 0.1788 | (−0.5633,0.1375) |
33212 | 0.0765 | 0.0163 | 0.0131 | (−0.0094,0.0420) | 0.0097 | 0.017 | (−0.0236,0.0430) | 0.0303 | 0.0146 | (0.0017,0.0589) |
33232 | −0.1263 | −0.2231 | 0.0136 | (−0.2498,−0.1964) | −0.1662 | 0.0169 | (−0.1993,−0.1331) | −0.1449 | 0.0159 | (−0.1761,−0.1137) |
33321 | −0.0254 | −0.073 | 0.0142 | (−0.1008,−0.0452) | −0.0692 | 0.0144 | (−0.0974,−0.0410) | −0.0436 | 0.0132 | (−0.0695,−0.0177) |
33323 | −0.1999 | −0.2559 | 0.0142 | (−0.2837,−0.2281) | −0.2184 | 0.0172 | (−0.2521,−0.1847) | −0.1894 | 0.0155 | (−0.2198,−0.1590) |
33332a |  | −0.3003 | 0.0958 | (−0.4881,−0.1125) | −0.2564 | 0.0942 | (−0.4410,−0.0718) | −0.2282 | 0.1082 | (−0.4403,−0.0161) |
33333 | −0.346 | −0.3599 | 0.0102 | (−0.3799,−0.3399) | −0.3082 | 0.0121 | (−0.3319,−0.2845) | −0.3114 | 0.0116 | (−0.3341,−0.2887) |